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December 2002
By Larry Shoup

The November 5, 2002 election saw record results for the seven candidates of the statewide Green Party slate, continuing the steady upward trend in Green electoral results since 1998. Each matched or came in well above the previous record for a California statewide race (3.9% to 5.8%), with vote totals ranging from about 275,000 to 417,100. Laura Wells, running for Controller, was the highest vote getter with 5.8%. Since the Greens have just over 155,000 registered voters, not all of whom voted, it is clear that hundreds of thousands of Californians who are not registered Green liked what we had to offer. In contrast, Democrats have about 6.5 million voters, but their highest vote getter got just over 3.5 million votes.

There has been a steady upward trend in Green state-wide results since Dan Hamburgšs pioneering 1998 Governor campaign and Ralph Naderšs more successful effort for President in 2000, culminating in Peter Miguel Camejo's yet higher results for Governor this year. In the fourteen counties with 60% of the total California vote, Camejošs total was higher than Naderšs, except in the case of three counties‹and two of these (Orange and San Diego) are large, conservative Southern California counties, illustrating the continuing Green weakness in Southern California. On the other hand, the Camejo campaign showed very strong improvement in Alameda and San Francisco counties, where Camejo doubled or almost doubled Nader's result countywide (11% in Alameda and 15.5% in San Francisco). Camejo beat Republican candidate Simon in San Francisco. In Berkeley Camejo got 25% (well ahead of Simon).

The central factors resulting in different vote totals for Green slate candidates included: … the number of candidates in each race, (some races had 5, 6 or 7 candidates);

the number of women in each race (some voters prefer voting for a woman and, depending upon the race, there were 0, 1, 2 or 3 women running);

• incumbency (the four Democratic incumbents all won comfortably);
• popularity (Governor Davis had low approval ratings);
• campaigning activity (some Green candidates campaigned more than others);
• racial/ethnic background (for example, the Latino Green vote increased dramatically);
• each candidates' ballot statement;
• newspaper coverage and endorsements of various kinds.

The results in San Francisco illustrate how some of these factors played out on November 5 in California's most progressive multi-ethnic urban area. In San Francisco, Shoup (in a 7-candidate race), Sheidlower (6 candidates), and Mowrer (5-candidates), each got 7.8%. Rosenmeier won 9.4% in a 6-candidate race and Wells 10.6% in a five 5-person race, the latter two results probably due to gender preference. Warren received 14.0% against 6 other candidates and Camejo 15.5% against 5 others.

The higher votes for Warren and Camejo in San Francisco probably resulted from two factors. First and most important, Peter Miguel Camejo was our most active and successful campaigner, traveling and speaking all over the state, giving the Green Party and the entire slate a high level of visibility and credibility, which affected all results, including vote totals in San Francisco. Second, in San Francisco, Camejo and Warren received an unusual amount of newspaper coverage and endorsements. For example, the San Francisco Chronicle had extensive coverage (much of it favorable) to the Camejo candidacy. According to one reporter, this was because many Chronicle readers knew the Green slate campaign was a serious one and demanded better and more coverage, sending numerous e-mails to reporters and letters to the editor. In addition, the San Francisco Bay Guardian endorsed both Camejo and Warren (but no other statewide Green candidates) in their election issue. Like the Chronicle, the Guardian expressed no interest in, had little coverage of, and did not interview for possible endorsement any other members of the Green slate. Finally, the Bay View, an African-American newspaper out of the Bay View-Hunters Point area of the city, also endorsed Camejo and Warren, but no other members of the slate. So, whereas Wells ran ahead of both Camejo and Warren in many counties, in San Francisco this was not the case, due to newspaper coverage and endorsements not replicated elsewhere in the state.

The key point to stress is that in future campaigns Greens need to pressure the media to cover Green candidates. Our ideas and political positions are increasingly part of the dialogue because we are forcing them into mainstream discourse. We must do a lot more of this in the future, with more staff and volunteers doing media work, organizing more e-mail and letter writing campaigns, and extending our efforts to demonstrations at media outlets.

Another lesson grows out of the election results in Southern California. Over 50% of the vote on November 5 was in five Southern California counties (Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino). In general, slate candidates did poorly in these often diverse counties, which have great Green potential, but where we are weak organizationally and in terms of Green registration. In addition, only about 31% of eligible voters actually voted on November 5. The state party needs to prioritize hiring a full time paid organizer to work in these counties in order to boost our registration, organization, and activities. The fact that our Controller candidate Laura Wells received by far the largest vote totals in these counties indicates that our Southern California organizer should be a woman. Elsewhere in the state, another organizer should be hired to do the same work, building strength where we already have a foothold.

Overall, the Green slate campaign was a big success--an historic breakthrough to a much larger and more diverse constituency for the Green Party. The California Green Party is now, if it was not already, the third party, and is by far the fastest growing party in the state. Some of our ideas for change, like instant runoff voting, are becoming a part of the mainstream dialogue. We are also gaining increasing respect and support among the key progressive/populist movements for peace and social change. Slate members ware meeting with the Coordinating Committee of the state Green Party to develop strategies and tactics to follow up on this success. We still have a very long way to go to reach our goals of a peaceful, sustainable, socially just and fully democratic nation and planet, but we are making steady progress for the people and for the earth.

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