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December 2002
By Jaime Rossman

On December 3rd, the results of a run-off election in Berkeley for the 8th District City Council seat were announced. Gordon Wozniak, a research scientist and long time area resident, defeated his opponent, student Andy Katz by a healthy sixteen point margin. Wozniak, who had the endorsement of outgoing council member Polly Armstrong, nearly avoided the need for a run-off, falling only 36 votes shy of the 45% needed for an outright victory in the four way race.

Wozniakıs victory surprised few. District 8 has long been considered a Œsafeı seat for the councilıs moderate faction, and Armstrongıs endorsement brought with it tremendous local support. Andy Katzı strong challenge for the seat was the most recent in a series of hard fought campaigns. In 1996 for example, Armstrong won by fewer than a hundred votes. Although the progressives have targeted District 8 heavily over the last several elections, they have been unable to find the right combination for victory.

A simple analysis of the returns in this yearıs election show why the progressives have been unable to take this seat, and how in the next election they will be able to do so.

District 8 is sharply divided politically, and this difference is sharply reflected in the election returns at the various precincts. We analyzed returns for the November 5th general election from seven of the Districtıs ten precincts and we found that voters in the Northern half of the district voted for Katz two-to-one, and voters in the South chose Wozniak two-to-one. There was very little difference in the number of registered voters in these two areas, but there was a huge difference in voter turnout. That difference in turnout gave the election to Wozniak.

Less than a third of those people registered in precincts that favored Katz chose to vote in the election while nearly two-thirds of eligible voters in Wozniak precincts cast ballots. By targeting these precincts with incredibly low turnout (in some cases less than 30%), Berkeley progressives should have an excellent chance to increase their City Council margin by gaining the seat in District 8.

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